Trust is the new gold + Why consistency will win in a tough 2026 + The ‘fat-tail’ of big hits

Hi

I’ve always been fascinated by the advice to creatives to ‘think like an artist but work like an accountant’. It basically means you can’t just be creative, you’ve got to also be disciplined and consistent.

The theme of this edition is ‘consistency’. You might think consistency is all droll routine and hard work. But as we see below, consistency is actually the engine that ultimately delivers what we are all seeking: connection, credibility and creative success.

And consistent communication and messaging will be particularly important this year.

Ben

In an AI world, the new gold is trust building

In the last edition, I said that AI has shifted us from an ‘attention’ economy to a ‘trust’ economy.

With AI content cratering trust, it is no longer enough to gain attention. You also have to maintain credibility and authority.

Some, including marketing legend Mark Ritson, have dismissed the notion that trust matters to brand success. He’s argued that companies like Facebook continue to grow despite declining trust. “Brands aren’t people”, he says.

But now there is strong evidence that trust-building is very important and delivers stronger business growth.

The Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA) analysed its Effectiveness Database (a database of case studies) to determine whether trust-building matters.

The IPA’s conclusion: “Trust is a powerful driver of growth.”

It found that 93% of campaigns that deliver big increases in trust are much more likely to report a ‘very large business effect’ (ie deliver big gains in market share, sales, profit, customer loyalty, etc.)

Regular campaigns deliver large business effects just 66% of the time.

But trust-building campaigns also deliver big brand benefits, including a higher perception of brand quality and greater brand loyalty. And trust-building also makes brands more differentiated and distinctive, both important drivers of growth.

The IPA says that more companies have been focusing on trust building in recent years.

But I think that will only accelerate with the advent of AI, which is lowering trust because people are no longer sure if communication is authentic and free of misinformation.

Trust, not information or attention, will become the new gold.

For leading knowledge and investment organisations, the best way to build trust, of course, is to consistently produce human-generated high-quality thought leadership that not only garners attention but builds credibility and authority.

Consistent communicators will survive and thrive in a tough 2026

Maintaining trust will be vital to surviving what is becoming a difficult 2026.

Australia’s years of complacency seem to be finally catching up with us, with rising inflation and interest rates, sluggish growth and a lagging stock market.

One of the best ways to build and maintain trust through tough times is to be relentlessly consistent in your communication and messaging.

Let’s look at one of the areas in which I specialise: asset management.

Many fund managers are struggling, particularly in Australian equities.

Not only is the ASX underperforming global markets, but many active managers who are underweight the major banks (believing they’re overvalued) are suffering from a sustained period of underperformance against the domestic benchmark.

Investors are getting jittery and wondering why they shouldn’t just passively invest in the ASX200 or ASX300 index. Or in global stocks.

The rise of giant super funds and algorithmic trading is also creating volatility and momentum that has disconnected price from value.

One analyst I spoke with recently said he is seeing many experienced managers, some who’ve run their funds for decades, caught so off guard by market changes they’ve been forced to shut up shop. Indeed, it seems the smarter you are, the worse you’ve performed recently.

But the funds that are weathering the underperformance have one thing in common: they have been communicating with their investors consistently.

That consistency is paying off big time now.

As you can see in the diagram below, by communicating consistently and having disciplined messaging – which includes educating clients and investors about unavoidable drawdowns and underperformance – you build the trust that allows you to retain investors when things inevitably get tough.

When performance recovers, that retention underpins a much stronger recovery of funds under management.

It’s not just asset managers this applies to. Australian businesses haven’t just underinvested in capital, they have also underinvested in marketing and communication.

They’re about to pay the price as things get tough.

2026 is turning into a year when the game is won or lost, and it is the good operators, those with effective, disciplined, and above all consistent communication who will win in this challenging market.

‘Fat tails’: How to really create big hits

Why is communicating consistently so hard?

Because the rewards from our efforts are inconsistent.

The professional services sales expert Blair Enns wrote an interesting article recently citing the legendary founder of Ogilvy UK’s behavioural science practice, Rory Sutherland.

Sutherland argues that marketing success is ‘fat-tailed’. That is, most activity doesn’t do much. But then a small number of marketing actions do become big hits and deliver huge value (10% of activities deliver 130% of value). 

But it’s difficult to predict which actions will produce outsized returns ahead of time.

The only way to create a successful marketing or communications program, therefore, is to produce consistently and let the numbers play out.

Some of your actions will deliver big gains and carry the rest of the activities that don’t move the needle.

In that sense, as Enns notes, communications and marketing are like investing. A few stocks in a portfolio or benchmark deliver almost all the value. But it’s difficult to know which stocks will become the big winners.

It’s also similar to the creative world where research has found an ‘equal-odds rule’ that quantity leads to quality: it is the prolific artists who have a greater probability of creating big hits and masterpieces.

The message is to stick to the plan, keep plugging away and celebrate the hits when they inevitably arrive.